Detecting agricultural drought risks: A case study of the rice crop (<i>Oryza sativa</i>) and the <scp>TAMSAT‐ALERT</scp> system in Guyana

Abstract Drought‐related risks pose a threat to the agricultural sector of Guyana despite country's wealth freshwater resources. As result, advancement understanding soil moisture deficits as means forecasting drought is needed aid farmers, extension officers, and other decision‐makers. Hence, this study has been motivated by following research question: Can Tropical Applications Meteorology using SATellite data—AgriculturaL Early waRning sysTem (TAMSAT‐ALERT) be used assess meteorological risk cultivation at key points in growing season? Due absence situ data for area study, Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model was historical moisture, based on gauge precipitation NCEP reanalysis data. A case approach during 1997 seasons rice crop taken determine whether TAMSAT‐ALERT can detect drought‐related season crop. Additionally, skill system highly dependent land surface state initialization forecast period. Therefore, conditions over interest mainly months or weeks leading up will have strong influence that